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MENA Importers Forecasts

 

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Egypt* 2020 2021 2022e 2023f 2024f
Nominal GDP $bn 366.2 408.5 379.5 247.2 230.5
Real GDP % 3.6 3.3 6.6 3.5 4.1
Current A/C % GDP -3.1 -4.9 -3.9 -3.2 -3.0
Budget Balance % GDP -7.9 -7.3 -6.7 -6.8 -6.7
CPI % 5.1 5.2 13.8 23.1 9.0
Jordan 2020 2021 2022e 2023f 2024f
Nominal GDP $bn 43.7 46.5 49.3 52.1 54.9
Real GDP % -1.6 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.8
Current A/C % GDP -5.7 -8.5 -7.3 -4.7 -4.8
Budget Balance % GDP -7.7 -6.1 -6.5 -5.3 -4.5
CPI % 0.3 1.4 4.2 3.0 2.0
Lebanon 2020 2021 2022e 2023f 2024f
Nominal GDP $bn 63.6 108.5 19.4 21.5 66.4
Real GDP % -25.0 -9.8 -5.5 1.0 2.8
Current A/C % GDP -4.7 -2.7 -13.7 -11.8 -11.0
Budget Balance % GDP -4.3 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.2
CPI % 84.3 151.0 183.8 100.0 60.0
Morocco 2020 2021 2022e 2023f 2024f
Nominal GDP $bn 121.4 142.9 136.2 144.4 159.2
Real GDP % -7.2 7.9 1.3 3.5 3.5
Current A/C % GDP -1.2 -2.3 -5.0 -4.0 -3.3
Budget Balance % GDP -7.1 -5.0 -5.5 -5.3 -5.0
CPI % 0.7 1.4 6.6 6.0 3.5
Tunisia 2020 2021 2022e 2023f 2024f
Nominal GDP $bn 39.3 40.8 37.7 38.6 41.5
Real GDP % -8.6 3.4 2.5 1.1 3.4
Current A/C % GDP -6.5 -7.0 -11.7 -8.4 -7.5
Budget Balance % GDP -10.2 -8.6 -8.8 -9.2 -9.5
CPI % 5.6 5.7 8.3 8.1 5.0
Oil Importers (GDP weighted avg) 2020 2021 2022e 2023f 2024f
Nominal GDP $bn 246.5 271.5 268.2 171.9 158.6
Real GDP % -2.5 2.2 4.5 3.1 3.6
Current A/C % GDP -3.3 -4.4 -5.2 -4.3 -4.6
Budget Balance % GDP -7.5 -5.6 -6.3 -6.1 -5.4
CPI % 11.9 25.4 16.4 18.2 12.6

Source: Haver Analytics, National sources, Emirates NBD Research

* Egypt data refers to fiscal year (July-June)