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MENA Importers Forecasts

 

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Egypt* 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 291.8 359.1 403.3 399.5 390.7
Real GDP % 5.6 3.6 3.3 6.0 4.1
Current A/C % GDP -3.7 -3.2 -5.0 -4.0 -3.6
Budget Balance % GDP -8.6 -8.0 -7.4 -7.3 -6.5
CPI % 9.4 5.1 5.2 12.0 8.5
Jordan 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 44.5 43.7 46.5 49.3 52.1
Real GDP % 2.0 -1.6 2.2 2.5 3.2
Current A/C % GDP -1.7 -5.7 -8.6 -8.4 -7.5
Budget Balance % GDP -3.7 -7.7 -6.1 -6.7 -5.3
CPI % 0.3 0.3 1.4 4.0 4.3
Lebanon 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 53.6 63.6 108.5 59.2 109.7
Real GDP % -7.2 -25.0 -9.8 -1.7 2.4
Current A/C % GDP -21.0 -4.7 -7.6 -15.7 -7.3
Budget Balance % GDP -10.9 -4.3 -0.2 -1.0 -1.0
CPI % 10.1 84.3 151.0 182.0 50.0
Morocco 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 128.9 121.4 143.3 145.1 145.5
Real GDP % 2.9 -7.2 7.9 1.3 3.7
Current A/C % GDP -3.4 -1.2 -2.3 -4.8 -4.7
Budget Balance % GDP -3.8 -7.1 -5.0 -6.1 -5.6
CPI % 0.3 0.7 1.4 6.5 4.0
Tunisia 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 40.5 39.3 40.8 38.3 36.8
Real GDP % 1.0 -8.6 3.4 2.2 2.8
Current A/C % GDP -8.7 -6.5 -7.0 -7.6 -5.8
Budget Balance % GDP -3.6 -10.2 -8.6 -8.8 -9.2
CPI % 6.7 5.6 5.7 8.3 6.7
Oil Importers (GDP weighted avg) 2019 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f
Nominal GDP $bn 193.5 241.0 267.7 265.1 253.8
Real GDP % 3.1 -2.5 2.2 3.2 4.0
Current A/C % GDP -5.5 -3.3 -5.2 -5.7 -4.8
Budget Balance % GDP -7.0 -7.6 -5.9 -6.9 -5.9
CPI % 6.4 12.0 25.6 23.1 13.2

Source: Haver Analytics, National sources, Emirates NBD Research

* Egypt data refers to fiscal year (July-June)