UAE central bank forecasts 5.7% GDP growth in 2024

The UAE central bank expects real GDP to grow 5.7% in 2024, up from an estimated 3.1% this year. Non- oil growth is expected to slow to 4.7% next year, while the central bank forecasts oil and gas output growth of 8.1% in 2024. Emirates NBD expects no oil sector GDP growth in 2024 as the UAE agreed at the November OPEC+ meeting to deepen production cuts in Q1 2024 and will likely only gradually increase output over the remainder of next year. We have pencilled in non-oil growth of 4.5% in 2024, yielding headline GDP growth of 3.3% next year.

The central bank of Turkey hiked its one-week repo rate by 250bps at its final meeting of the year yesterday, taking the benchmark interest rate to 42.5%. The move was in line with expectations, and there has now been a cumulative 3400bp of hikes since Hafize Gaye Erkan was appointed governor in Jun. Yesterday’s move did mark a slowdown from the consecutive 500bps hikes implemented over previous meetings and it appears likely that the bank is nearing the end of its hiking cycle. Headline CPI inflation remains high at 62.0% in November, but the bank’s communiqué noted that ‘inflation expectations and pricing behavior started to show signs of improvement’, and that the MPC “anticipates to complete the tightening cycle as soon as possible.”

The Central Bank of Egypt kept the deposit rate unchanged at 19.25%, in line with market expectations, after inflation slowed in November. The MPC said it would “not hesitate to utilize all available tools…to preserve the decelerating trend of underlying inflation”, indicating further rate hikes may be warranted. Analysts expect the central bank to hike rates around the time the currency is devalued, most likely in Q1 2024.

US GDP growth in Q3 was revised lower to 4.9% in the third reading, from 5.2% previously and in line with the advance print. Personal consumption was revised down to 3.1% annualized from 3.6% in the prior estimate, while fixed investment and government consumption were revised higher. Encouragingly, the core PCE price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – was revised lower to 2.0% from 2.3% in the second reading, effectively bringing it back to target.

Today’s Economic Data and Events

11:00 UK retail sales (Nov) forecast 0.4% m/m and -1.3% y/y

11:00 UK GDP (Q3, final) forecast 0.6% y/y

17:30 US personal income (Nov) forecast 0.4% m/m

17:30 US personal spending (Nov) forecast 0.3% m/m)

17:30 US durable goods orders (Nov, prelim) forecast 2.3% m/m

19:00 US new home sales (Nov) forecast 690k (1.6% m/m)

Fixed Income

Treasury yields ticked up yesterday despite softer than expected GDP data for Q3. 2y yields rose 2bp to 4.35% while 10y yields rose 4bp to 3.89%.

Benchmark 10y yields declined in Europe’s larger economies but rose in Sweden, Switzerland and the Netherlands. 10y gilt yields rose slightly to 3.52%.

FX

The USD spot index fell 0.6% yesterday as EUR, JPY and CHF gained against the dollar. Sterling weakened -0.1% and the commodity currencies also lost ground against the dollar on Thursday. NZD fell -0.5% while AUD declined 0.3%.

Equities

US equities closed in the green yesterday with the S&P 500 gaining 1% and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.3%. European indices closed slightly lower however and FTSE 100 fell -0.3%.

Saudi Tadawul closed down -0.7% on Thursday with Al Rajhi Bank down -1.3%.  DFMGI declined -0.2% while ADXGI rose 0.1% yesterday.

Commodities

Angola announced on Thursday that it would quit OPEC, with Mineral Resources Minister Azevedo saying Angola’s role in the organization “was not deemed relevant”. Angola had rejected further cuts to its production target at the November OPEC+ meeting, even though it is currently producing less than its 1.1mn b/d limit. A lack of investment in recent years has limited Angola’s ability to increase output and its departure from OPEC is unlikely to result in an increase in supply. 

Brent and WTI both declined -0.4% after three days of gains, with Brent falling to USD 79.39/b and WTI at USD 73.89/b.

This will be our last Daily Outlook for 2023, we will resume publication on 2 January 2024. Emirates NBD Research wishes our readers well over the holidays.