Find anything about our articles and more.
Enter a query in the search input above, and results will be displayed as you type.

Try typing "Dubai Economics", "Dubai GDP", "GCC Macro"

Emirates NBD
Search
Subscribe
   
  • Home
  • Economics

    Emirates NBD Research provides detailed coverage of 16 GCC and MENA economies, analysing them from a top down macro and strategic perspective as well as by a bottom up sector by sector approach.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • GCC Macro
    • MENA Macro
    • Global Macro
    • Sector Economics
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article February Monthly Insights
    Latest Article US CPI flat in January
    Latest Article Growth forecasts lowered

     

  • Markets

    Emirates NBD Research publishes reports on global forex, rates and commodities, as well as regional fixed income and equity markets.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • Foreign Exchange
    • Fixed Income
    • Commodities
    • Equities
    • Monthly Insights

     

    Latest Article February Monthly Insights
    Latest Article US CPI flat in January
    Latest Article Growth forecasts lowered

     

  • Daily
  • PMIs

    Emirates NBD sponsors Purchasing Managers’ Indices for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Dubai. The indices are compiled by IHS Markit, the leading global provider of financial market data.

    • SUBTOPICS
    • UAE PMI
    • Saudi Arabia PMI
    • Egypt PMI
    • Dubai Economy Tracker
    • Methodology

     

    Latest Article Dubai Economy Tracker: New orders rebound in January
    Latest Article Egypt PMI: A weaker start to 2019
    Latest Article Saudi PMI: A good start to 2019

     

  • About Us
  • EmiratesNBD.com
  • Subscribe
ECONOMICS > PMIS

UAE PMI: Steady in September

Khatija Haque - Head of MENA Research
Published Date: 03 October 2018

Facebook
Linkedin
Twitter

 

The headline UAE PMI stood at 55.3 in September, the third month in a row with a reading at the 55-handle.  This signals a steady expansion in the non-oil private sector in Q3 2018.  Year to date, the PMI averaged 55.7, similar to the same period last year.  Although output and new work rose sharply in September, supported by growth in export orders to the MENA region, employment remained below the neutral 50-level for the second consecutive month.  The majority of firms reported no change in staffing in September but nearly 2% of firms indicated a decline in jobs last month.  Staff costs (a proxy for wages) were also largely unchanged last month. 

Stocks of pre-production inventories were slightly higher in September after declining in August.  Over the last four months, inventory levels have been unchanged on average, suggesting that firms are either much better at managing their stocks or they are reluctant to build up inventory; ie indicating softer expected demand in the coming months.  The business optimism component of the survey showed that most firms surveyed (62%) expect output to be higher in a year’s time, fewer than in the August survey. 

Input costs were slightly higher in September (51.2), but the rate of producer inflation has slowed markedly since January when VAT pushed the index up to 57.4.  Selling prices were unchanged in September (50.2) after declining on average for the previous four months.

Backlogs of work rose again in September – unsurprising given strong output and new work growth with no increase in employment – but at the slowest pace since May. 

The PMI survey data so far this year suggests to us that the non-oil sector in the UAE is growing at a similar pace to last year, when official statistics showed non-oil GDP growth of 2.5%.  Oil production has increased since June and this is likely to support faster non-oil growth in Q4, in our view.  However, the additional AED 50bn fiscal stimulus announced by Abu Dhabi in early June is now only likely to be disbursed from 2019, over the next three years.     

UAE PMI: Employment remains weak

Source: IHS Markit, Emirates NBD Research

Click here to download the full report

 

Written By:
Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research

RELATED ARTICLES

Dubai Economy Tracker: New orders rebound in January
11.02.2019

Saudi PMI: A good start to 2019
05.02.2019

UAE PMI: Faster expansion in January
05.02.2019

Dubai Economy Tracker: Slower growth in Q4 2018
16.01.2019

UAE PMI at two-year low
19.12.2018

See all

LATEST ARTICLES

February Monthly Insights
14.02.2019

US CPI flat in January
14.02.2019

Agreement in principle reached on border security
13.02.2019

See all
 

 Subscribe to our newsletter


Never miss out what is going on in UAE Economics

KEEP READING MORE

February Monthly Insights

Central banks globally have shifted their perspectives over the last few weeks with most significant institutions adopting a more dovish tone for 2019.

ECONOMICS, MARKETS - 14.02.2019

US CPI flat in January

U.S. CPI inflation data was flat m-o-m in January, while the core index rose by 0.2 percent.

ECONOMICS, MARKETS - 14.02.2019

Agreement in principle reached on border security

Market sentiment was elevated on Tuesday, following news that Republicans and Democrats reached an agreement in principle regarding border security

DAILY OUTLOOK, DAILY - 13.02.2019

 

UK GDP growth slows further in Q4 2018

A very bleak picture of the UK economy was delivered yesterday with news that GDP, trade and production data all disappointed relative to expectations.

DAILY OUTLOOK, DAILY - 12.10.2018

Global growth expectations lowered

Downward revisions to growth estimates in many parts of the world increase the perception that monetary policy normalization is being postponed.

FX, FX WEEK - 10.02.2019

Economic Calendar for the week

The Emirates NBD Research Economic Calendar for the week commencing Monday 11th of February has been released.

ECONOMICS, MARKETS - 10.02.2019

Dubai Economy Tracker: New orders rebound in January

The headline Dubai Economy Tracker Index rose to 55.8 in January from 53.7 in December, on the back of a sharp rise in new orders.

PMIS, ECONOMICS - 11.02.2019

  • Economics
  • Markets
  • PMIs
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications
  • Economics
  • GCC Macro
  • MENA Macro
  • Global Macro
  • Sector Economics
  • Markets
  • Foreign Exchange
  • Fixed Income
  • Commodities
  • Equities
  • PMIs
  • UAE PMI
  • Saudi Arabia PMI
  • Egypt PMI
  • Dubai Economy Tracker
  • Methodology
  • About Us
  • Subscribe to our publications

 


Terms and Conditions
Copyright © 2019 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC. All Rights Reserved